Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1729 DTW 08:29 → MKE 08:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3675 DTW 17:41 → MKE 18:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1729 Delta	DTW 08:29	MKE 08:44	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3102 Delta	DTW 08:30	MKE 08:46	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3826 SkyWest	DTW 12:27	MKE 12:46	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1343 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	MKE 16:02	11%	3%	0.5%	80%
OO 3981 SkyWest	DTW 13:49	MKE 14:05	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3724 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:00	MKE 20:20	14%	5%	0.5%	64%
DL 3675 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:41	MKE 18:00	15%	5%	0.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON