Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5205 DTW 08:25 → MSN 08:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 844 DTW 12:26 → MSN 12:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5205 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 08:25	MSN 08:50	5%	2%	0.7%	81%
9E 5338 Endeavor	DTW 12:20	MSN 12:58	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5245 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:49	MSN 17:13	7%	3%	0.7%	68%
9E 5033 Endeavor	DTW 16:55	MSN 17:19	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 844 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:26	MSN 12:42	8%	3%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON