Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 08:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	MSY 10:14	7%	2%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	7h 20m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	7h 25m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02DL 1163	2h 18m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	7h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 52m	99%	89%
American Details →	DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:49AA 5414 · flown by PSA	56m Philadelphia	PHL 08:45 → MSY 10:39AA 2354	5h 36m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 32m	99%	87%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 11:26 → MSY 12:23AA 2030	7h 23m	98%	87%
United Details →	DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa	2h 00m Houston	IAH 14:57 → MSY 16:28UA 2738	6h 33m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON