Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 4962 DTW 12:15 → OMA 13:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4055 DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 4962 Endeavor	DTW 12:15	OMA 13:21	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3715 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 19:45	OMA 20:53	10%	3%	0.5%	71%
DL 3889 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:00	OMA 17:10	10%	3%	0.5%	71%
DL 3762 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 12:15	OMA 13:22	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 4055 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:35	OMA 09:48	11%	3%	0.5%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON