Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3440 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day YX 3440 DTW 05:32 → ORD 05:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1665 DTW 20:00 → ORD 20:31 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3440 Republic	DTW 05:32	ORD 05:56	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4103 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 10:25	ORD 11:00	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 06:45	ORD 07:30	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 4013 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 08:26	ORD 09:08	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 2771 United	DTW 10:18	ORD 10:37	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2027 United	DTW 07:30	ORD 08:02	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:15	ORD 10:35	9%	4%	0.6%	86%
9E 5327 Endeavor	DTW 10:01	ORD 10:13	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 11:00	ORD 11:29	9%	3%	0.5%	70%
YX 3441 Republic	DTW 12:33	ORD 12:57	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2840 Delta	DTW 07:28	ORD 07:54	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 13:30	ORD 13:50	13%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1503 United	DTW 08:58	ORD 09:20	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1622 Delta	DTW 07:12	ORD 07:29	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3819 SkyWest	DTW 11:29	ORD 11:44	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3947 Envoy	DTW 20:33	ORD 20:54	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 16:23	ORD 16:45	15%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:03	16%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	17%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	19%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:21	ORD 16:44	20%	6%	0.6%	49%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	22%	4%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON