Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1359 DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 412 DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1359 Delta	DTW 10:03	ORF 11:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3066 Delta	DTW 10:07	ORF 12:02	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
9E 4966 Endeavor	DTW 14:55	ORF 16:40	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 412 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	ORF 23:32	9%	3%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON