Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:54	PDX 10:36	6%	1%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	3h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 39m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 15m	99%	93%
United Details →	DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:21UA 2302	3h 06m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 12m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 41m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	9h 04m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 31m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → PDX 21:55DL 691	9h 56m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	6h 55m	96%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON