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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4392 DTW 12:51 → PHL 14:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1686 DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time
Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

YX 4392 Republic DTW 12:51 PHL 14:53 3% 2% 0.5% no record
DL 2968 Delta Flight history → DTW 07:05 PHL 08:41 4% 2% 0.5% 90%
AA 5414 American flown by PSA Flight history → DTW 06:03 PHL 07:49 4% 3% 0.8% 100%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history → DTW 11:13 PHL 13:02 4% 3% 0.8% 82%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history → DTW 10:10 PHL 11:46 4% 1% 0.5% 89%
DL 2402 Delta Flight history → DTW 21:35 PHL 23:16 6% 2% 0.6% 81%
OH 5367 PSA DTW 17:55 PHL 19:50 6% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 1391 Delta Flight history → DTW 15:00 PHL 16:43 7% 2% 0.5% 71%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history → DTW 17:40 PHL 19:25 7% 2% 0.6% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON