Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 839 DTW 08:10 → PHX 09:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4671 DTW 06:03 → PHX 07:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 839 American Flight history →	DTW 08:10	PHX 09:48	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	PHX 09:44	9%	1%	0.6%	80%
DL 813 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:47	PHX 13:50	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1135 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:26	PHX 19:47	11%	2%	0.6%	67%
F9 4671 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 06:03	PHX 07:25	13%	3%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	DTW 12:49 → ORD 13:08AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	49m Chicago	ORD 13:57 → PHX 15:49AA 1640	6h 00m	75%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON