Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5842 DTW 08:25 → PIT 09:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3875 DTW 19:37 → PIT 20:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5842 Republic	DTW 08:25	PIT 09:55	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 5848 Republic	DTW 08:43	PIT 09:54	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 5844 Republic	DTW 10:09	PIT 11:30	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 5849 Republic	DTW 10:28	PIT 11:39	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 5369 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 22:43	PIT 23:59	6%	2%	0.7%	67%
DL 4640 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 14:27	PIT 15:37	6%	2%	0.7%	72%
OO 3875 SkyWest	DTW 19:37	PIT 20:51	10%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON