Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	PWM 11:55	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	PWM 16:01	6%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:51AA 5414 · flown by PSA	59m Philadelphia	PHL 08:50 → PWM 10:31AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	4h 30m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	7h 43m	99%	89%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47AA 4477 · flown by Republic	2h 17m New York	LGA 10:04 → PWM 11:26AA 4571 · flown by Republic	5h 26m	99%	88%
American Details →	DTW 16:23 → ORD 16:45AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	3h 49m Chicago	ORD 20:34 → PWM 00:09 +1AA 4504 · flown by Republic	7h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → PWM 23:14DL 2138	6h 24m	97%	85%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → PWM 12:36AA 1744	6h 36m	98%	84%
American Details →	DTW 09:56 → DCA 11:35AA 5660 · flown by PSA	2h 59m Washington	DCA 14:34 → PWM 16:25AA 1423	6h 29m	98%	83%
American Details →	DTW 06:45 → ORD 07:30AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest	53m Chicago	ORD 08:23 → PWM 11:46AA 4741 · flown by Republic	5h 01m	90%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON