Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1427 DTW 07:05 → RDU 08:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1407 DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	RDU 08:48	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	RDU 11:57	5%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2839 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	RDU 23:25	8%	2%	0.5%	75%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:02	RDU 17:47	8%	2%	0.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON