Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 4997 DTW 11:26 → RIC 13:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3073 DTW 14:30 → RIC 16:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 4997 Endeavor	DTW 11:26	RIC 13:12	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5509 Endeavor	DTW 10:20	RIC 12:00	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5038 Endeavor	DTW 21:27	RIC 23:10	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3073 Delta	DTW 14:30	RIC 16:13	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON