Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 761 DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 369 DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 761 Delta	DTW 12:33	SAN 14:26	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 492 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAN 10:27	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 369 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	SAN 18:14	14%	2%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 37m	92%	86%
American Details →	DTW 08:26 → ORD 09:08AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	46m Chicago	ORD 09:54 → SAN 12:16AA 2131	6h 50m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	47m Los Angeles	LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	88%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON