Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1119 DTW 08:45 → SAV 10:52 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3694 DTW 15:43 → SAV 18:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1119 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAV 10:52	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
OO 3711 SkyWest	DTW 15:04	SAV 17:14	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	DTW 15:43	SAV 18:00	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON