Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5101 DTW 08:29 → SDF 09:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5121 DTW 15:50 → SDF 17:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5101 Endeavor	DTW 08:29	SDF 09:54	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5085 Endeavor	DTW 12:32	SDF 14:02	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5122 Endeavor	DTW 12:30	SDF 13:54	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5832 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:45	SDF 21:12	7%	2%	0.6%	79%
9E 5121 Endeavor	DTW 15:50	SDF 17:14	8%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON