Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 732 DTW 06:01 → SEA 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 344 DTW 07:01 → SEA 09:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 732 Delta Flight history →	DTW 06:01	SEA 07:59	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 728 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:29	SEA 14:29	9%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 944 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:46	SEA 18:42	11%	2%	0.6%	72%
DL 565 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:34	SEA 22:33	11%	2%	0.6%	64%
DL 734 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	SEA 10:34	13%	2%	0.6%	76%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 17:31	SEA 19:33	13%	2%	0.6%	73%
AS 344 Alaska Flight history →	DTW 07:01	SEA 09:00	14%	2%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 00m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 58m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	6h 52m	91%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON