Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1550 DTW 07:00 → SFO 09:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest DL 335 DTW 19:47 → SFO 21:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1550 United Flight history →	DTW 07:00	SFO 09:24	8%	3%	0.6%	61%
DL 361 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	SFO 10:27	11%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 469 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	SFO 14:17	11%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 442 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:17	SFO 18:14	13%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 335 Delta	DTW 19:47	SFO 21:44	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	7h 09m	94%	86%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:01UA 2302	1h 20m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 07m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	6h 52m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON