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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Philadelphia, leaving 06:02, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:51AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 09:33 → SJU 13:41AA 614 7h 39m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 9h 19m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 50m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → MIA 09:06AA 1020 2h 33m Miami MIA 11:39 → SJU 14:24AA 1613 8h 24m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 15m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861 7h 31m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa 2h 06m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 9h 43m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45UA 3652 · flown by Republic 2h 01m Newark EWR 09:46 → SJU 13:45UA 1556 7h 45m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON