Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 935 DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2117 DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 935 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	SLC 14:11	7%	2%	0.4%	88%
DL 698 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	SLC 10:21	7%	2%	0.4%	89%
OO 4610 SkyWest	DTW 19:32	SLC 21:40	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 765 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	SLC 19:34	10%	2%	0.4%	78%
DL 2117 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:20	SLC 22:15	12%	2%	0.5%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	59m Denver	DEN 10:46 → SLC 12:22DL 1317	5h 42m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 08:53 → SLC 10:43DL 8801	5h 42m	91%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON