tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1857 Delta Flight history → DTW 09:25 SNA 11:05 10% 3% 0.6% 70%
DL 1333 Delta DTW 08:34 SNA 10:05 14% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:00UA 2302 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 00m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 2h 25m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 8h 08m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 9h 01m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 7h 20m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 07:00 → SFO 09:23UA 1550 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 12:19 → SNA 14:22UA 2441 10h 22m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 26m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:43 → DFW 13:44AA 3101 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:51AA 3223 9h 08m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 14m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON