Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5533 DTW 11:34 → SYR 13:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest DL 1689 DTW 21:35 → SYR 22:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5533 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 11:34	SYR 13:01	6%	2%	0.8%	74%
DL 5213 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 07:12	SYR 08:39	8%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 5465 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 14:25	SYR 15:52	8%	3%	0.8%	79%
DL 1689 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	SYR 22:58	13%	3%	0.5%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON