Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5189 DTW 10:19 → TVC 11:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3999 DTW 16:10 → TVC 17:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5189 Endeavor	DTW 10:19	TVC 11:30	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
9E 5179 Endeavor	DTW 16:07	TVC 17:18	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AC 7089 Air Canada	DTW 11:25	TVC 12:37	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3976 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:23	TVC 11:34	13%	5%	0.6%	68%
DL 2424 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:59	TVC 00:08	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
OO 3999 SkyWest	DTW 16:10	TVC 17:21	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON