Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:35 am at Detroit)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4889 at 16:06, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:06	XNA 17:25	8%	2%	0.7%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 08:28 → XNA 09:24DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 07m	98%	90%
American Details →	DTW 08:25 → ORD 09:07AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → XNA 13:40AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	100%	89%
American Details →	DTW 11:45 → DFW 13:45AA 3101	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → XNA 17:59AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	7h 14m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:31 → XNA 16:26DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 01m	99%	87%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:29 → XNA 13:50AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	6h 52m	97%	87%
United Details →	DTW 08:58 → DEN 10:05UA 2302	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	8h 27m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:35 → ATL 19:44DL 2053	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:55 → XNA 00:08 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	99%	87%
American Details →	DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:52AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 36m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	7h 29m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON