Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3114 ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2823 ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3114 Delta Flight history →	ECP 06:00	ATL 08:13	8%	3%	1.2%	91%
DL 1674 Delta Flight history →	ECP 07:50	ATL 10:00	8%	3%	1.2%	92%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ECP 17:03	ATL 19:21	9%	4%	1.0%	83%
DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ECP 09:12	ATL 11:20	10%	4%	1.2%	90%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ECP 11:38	ATL 13:51	10%	3%	1.2%	87%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ECP 14:47	ATL 17:00	12%	3%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON