Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1156 Southwest	ECP 18:00	HOU 20:05	18%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 1561 Southwest	ECP 17:42	HOU 19:32	23%	5%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:56 → HOU 14:09DL 1195	6h 19m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	ECP 07:57 → DAL 10:09WN 312	2h 21m Dallas	DAL 12:30 → HOU 13:45WN 25	5h 48m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 04m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON