Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4776 ECP 06:22 → IAH 08:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4352 ECP 14:53 → IAH 17:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4776 SkyWest	ECP 06:22	IAH 08:33	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 4851 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 11:45	IAH 13:58	14%	5%	2.1%	83%
UA 4352 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 14:53	IAH 17:11	16%	5%	1.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON