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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 39m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 13m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:49 → MCI 18:56DL 1130 7h 18m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 07:58 → DAL 10:06WN 312 3h 04m Dallas DAL 13:10 → MCI 14:48WN 1328 6h 50m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 6h 55m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON