Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2997 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2997 ELP 05:40 → DEN 07:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1744 ELP 15:12 → DEN 16:54 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2997 Southwest	ELP 05:40	DEN 07:32	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1743 Southwest	ELP 06:30	DEN 08:21	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 724 United Flight history →	ELP 07:00	DEN 08:53	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	11%	5%	0.5%	79%
F9 4418 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 19:25	DEN 21:28	12%	5%	0.6%	77%
WN 1744 Southwest	ELP 15:12	DEN 16:54	14%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON