Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2319 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2319 ELP 06:51 → DFW 09:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2316 ELP 17:12 → DFW 20:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2319 American	ELP 06:51	DFW 09:46	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3769 Envoy	ELP 14:01	DFW 16:52	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2029 American Flight history →	ELP 07:05	DFW 10:00	11%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 1365 American Flight history →	ELP 10:05	DFW 12:59	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 3272 American	ELP 07:53	DFW 10:48	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1658 American	ELP 13:04	DFW 15:55	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2316 American	ELP 17:12	DFW 20:08	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON