Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1401 Southwest	ELP 07:45	HOU 10:45	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2311 Southwest	ELP 14:55	HOU 17:48	10%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 26m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON