Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6303 ELP 05:40 → IAH 08:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5312 ELP 14:18 → IAH 17:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6303 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 05:40	IAH 08:50	9%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 6163 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 06:59	IAH 10:09	10%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 3994 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 08:07	IAH 11:21	11%	5%	1.0%	90%
UA 4002 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 12:31	IAH 15:47	12%	6%	1.0%	83%
OO 5312 SkyWest	ELP 14:18	IAH 17:35	13%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON