Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4006 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 07:31	ORD 11:39	7%	3%	0.6%	100%
YX 3484 Republic	ELP 08:40	ORD 12:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	8h 28m	98%	86%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	3h 45m Denver	DEN 20:23 → ORD 23:52UA 377	8h 20m	99%	83%
United Details →	ELP 05:39 → IAH 08:48UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	3h 12m Houston	IAH 12:00 → ORD 14:49UA 1691	8h 10m	99%	83%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:39 → ORD 15:11AA 1618	7h 06m	97%	83%
United Details →	ELP 06:58 → IAH 10:07UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	3h 36m Houston	IAH 13:43 → ORD 16:25UA 1299	8h 27m	99%	82%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 55m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	7h 14m	98%	82%
American Details →	ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 09:38 → ORD 15:48AA 2998	8h 47m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON