Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1755 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1755 ELP 07:00 → PHX 07:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1100 ELP 18:38 → PHX 19:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1755 Southwest	ELP 07:00	PHX 07:26	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1646 Southwest	ELP 07:01	PHX 07:26	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5008 SkyWest	ELP 06:09	PHX 07:04	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4925 SkyWest	ELP 06:14	PHX 06:53	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4889 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 12:11	PHX 12:55	8%	5%	0.6%	93%
WN 1756 Southwest	ELP 11:58	PHX 12:20	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	ELP 15:41	PHX 16:16	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1100 Southwest	ELP 18:38	PHX 19:03	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON