Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1580 at 06:45, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1580 Southwest	ELP 06:45	SAN 07:43	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	1h 58m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	7h 21m	98%	83%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	97%	81%
United Details →	ELP 14:02 → IAH 17:15UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 35m Houston	IAH 19:50 → SAN 21:18UA 1911	8h 16m	95%	79%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	2h 42m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 14m	98%	78%
American Details →	ELP 12:11 → PHX 12:55AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Phoenix	PHX 13:59 → SAN 15:19AA 1951	4h 08m	95%	77%
Frontier Details →	ELP 19:25 → DEN 21:28F9 4418	58m Denver	DEN 22:26 → SAN 00:11 +1F9 2711	5h 46m	89%	77%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:56 → SAN 12:19AA 3109	6h 14m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON