tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4547 Southwest ELP 09:42 SAT 12:17 5% 2% 0.4% no record
WN 3245 Southwest ELP 18:01 SAT 20:34 9% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:47 → SAT 16:08UA 2030 7h 08m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 38m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Los Angeles LAX 09:24 → SAT 14:35AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → SAT 14:57AA 791 6h 52m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → ELP 12:11 → PHX 12:55AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 14:58 → SAT 19:38AA 570 6h 27m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 30m Houston IAH 21:40 → SAT 22:42UA 2198 5h 42m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 53m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 4h 01m 88% 78%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:02 → IAH 17:15UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 50m Houston IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542 6h 11m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Houston IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542 4h 13m 60% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON