tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, QX 2183 at 19:12, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2183 Horizon ELP 19:12 SEA 21:55 20% 6% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 11h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 10h 34m 97% 83%
FrontierDetails → ELP 00:40 → LAS 02:13F9 3449 3h 41m Las Vegas LAS 05:54 → SEA 08:57F9 4203 9h 17m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → ELP 12:11 → PHX 12:55AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 14:20 → SEA 17:30AA 3934 · flown by Envoy 6h 19m 95% 81%
FrontierDetails → ELP 19:25 → DEN 21:28F9 4418 1h 56m Denver DEN 23:24 → SEA 01:14 +1F9 9421 6h 49m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:39 → IAH 08:48UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 13m Houston IAH 12:01 → SEA 14:29UA 2228 9h 50m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 27m Denver DEN 11:20 → SEA 13:09UA 2058 7h 09m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:31 → ORD 11:40AA 4006 · flown by Envoy 1h 13m Chicago ORD 12:53 → SEA 15:17AA 2672 8h 46m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON