Today: UA 1220 at 12:52 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–22%.

Safest bet today UA 1220 EUG 12:52 → DEN 16:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1063 EUG 14:06 → DEN 17:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1220 United	EUG 12:52	DEN 16:35	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1320 Southwest	EUG 13:35	DEN 17:13	20%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1063 Southwest	EUG 14:06	DEN 17:42	22%	2%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON