tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1187 at 12:16, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1187 Southwest EUG 12:16 LAS 14:09 13% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 45m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 08:41 → LAS 10:34UA 1627 4h 34m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 01m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:21 → PDX 06:23AS 3040 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Portland PDX 09:04 → LAS 11:17AS 1337 5h 56m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Seattle SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949 5h 25m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → EUG 12:36 → SEA 13:56DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955 6h 24m 95% 81%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest 59m Portland PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531 4h 12m 88% 78%
AmericanDetails → EUG 06:30 → PHX 09:09AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 1h 29m Phoenix PHX 10:38 → LAS 11:53AA 2109 5h 23m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EUG 15:12 → SAN 17:41AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 1h 02m San Diego SAN 18:43 → LAS 20:04AS 2018 · flown by Horizon 4h 52m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON