Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2762 United	EUG 14:12	ORD 20:33	24%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Eugene). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	2h 38m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	7h 55m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	EUG 12:36 → SEA 13:56DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	9h 02m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:44 → SEA 15:00AS 2188 · flown by Horizon	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	8h 15m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637	8h 28m	99%	78%
American Details →	EUG 06:30 → PHX 09:09AA 4048 · flown by Envoy	1h 14m Phoenix	PHX 10:23 → ORD 15:59AA 2710	7h 29m	95%	77%
United Details →	EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335	2h 34m San Francisco	SFO 10:09 → ORD 16:23UA 2827	8h 23m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON