Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3040 EUG 05:29 → PDX 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3049 EUG 12:43 → PDX 13:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3040 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 05:29	PDX 06:30	3%	3%	1.2%	94%
AS 3041 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 16:00	PDX 16:51	7%	5%	0.6%	87%
OO 3049 SkyWest	EUG 12:43	PDX 13:54	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 2053 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	EUG 05:20	PDX 06:06	2%	2%	0.0%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON