Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4048 EUG 06:30 → PHX 09:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest MQ 3636 EUG 07:42 → PHX 10:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4048 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EUG 06:30	PHX 09:09	11%	5%	0.7%	91%
MQ 3747 Envoy	EUG 14:17	PHX 16:55	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3636 Envoy	EUG 07:42	PHX 10:25	15%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON