Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: UA 335 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day


UA 335 United Flight history →	EUG 06:00	SFO 07:35	6%	3%	0.8%	95%
OO 5503 SkyWest	EUG 15:44	SFO 17:25	18%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	7h 09m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	6h 14m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	6h 03m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Portland	PDX 18:46 → SFO 20:36AS 1374	4h 35m	98%	86%
United Details →	EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	95%	84%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 13m Portland	PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526	3h 56m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	EUG 12:55 → LAX 15:11AS 2323 · flown by Horizon	1h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 16:57 → SFO 18:18AS 726	5h 23m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 11:18 → SFO 13:24DL 1412	7h 09m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon	50m Seattle	SEA 19:42 → SFO 21:54AS 628	4h 11m	49%	36%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	49m Seattle	SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655	4h 19m	37%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON