Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2353 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2353 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1157 EWR 22:29 → ATL 00:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	5%	2%	0.7%	85%
UA 1012 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:20	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	6%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	7%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	EWR 10:31	ATL 12:53	8%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 2669 United Flight history →	EWR 08:45	ATL 11:08	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	9%	3%	0.7%	80%
UA 1746 United	EWR 11:12	ATL 13:28	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:26	ATL 13:55	13%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	14%	3%	0.7%	70%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 15:57	ATL 18:41	15%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 2304 United Flight history →	EWR 16:31	ATL 18:54	16%	4%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:58	ATL 21:16	17%	5%	0.7%	75%
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 17:12	ATL 19:46	19%	6%	0.7%	72%
F9 1157 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 22:29	ATL 00:52	24%	10%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON