Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2110 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2110 EWR 07:01 → AUS 10:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1032 EWR 19:05 → AUS 21:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2110 United Flight history →	EWR 07:01	AUS 10:13	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 1238 United	EWR 09:38	AUS 12:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2289 United Flight history →	EWR 15:10	AUS 18:11	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 1409 United	EWR 20:50	AUS 23:56	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2213 United	EWR 17:21	AUS 20:06	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1032 United	EWR 19:05	AUS 21:25	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON