Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, G7 4389 at 15:08, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G7 4389 GoJet	EWR 15:08	AVL 17:17	16%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 07m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:52DL 3099	6h 22m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:11DL 3059	5h 11m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:09 → AVL 17:17DL 3101	6h 46m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → AVL 18:26DL 5261 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	99%	84%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	47m Chicago	ORD 08:02 → AVL 10:49AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	5h 19m	93%	83%
American Details →	EWR 10:40 → ORD 12:25AA 3170	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 13:38 → AVL 16:32AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:24 → AVL 21:32DL 3116	6h 11m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON