Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1428 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1428 EWR 07:00 → BNA 08:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest YX 3454 EWR 19:41 → BNA 20:39 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1428 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	BNA 08:24	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2776 United	EWR 10:53	BNA 12:28	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 695 United	EWR 14:53	BNA 16:13	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 13:12	BNA 14:30	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:05	BNA 17:46	15%	5%	0.6%	67%
YX 3454 Republic	EWR 19:41	BNA 20:39	19%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON