Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1117 at 01:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1117 EWR 01:05 → BOS 02:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2763 EWR 19:55 → BOS 21:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1117 United	EWR 01:05	BOS 02:33	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 593 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	BOS 08:17	5%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1110 United Flight history →	EWR 08:32	BOS 09:48	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1669 United Flight history →	EWR 11:59	BOS 13:16	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 375 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	BOS 11:16	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 577 United Flight history →	EWR 13:37	BOS 14:54	11%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:10	BOS 16:36	12%	4%	0.7%	68%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:40	BOS 22:18	14%	5%	0.9%	67%
UA 2433 United Flight history →	EWR 16:30	BOS 17:57	15%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 1536 United Flight history →	EWR 15:22	BOS 16:38	19%	6%	0.6%	56%
UA 2763 United Flight history →	EWR 19:55	BOS 21:07	24%	7%	0.7%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON