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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 47m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 3h 22m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 6h 46m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:10 → BOS 16:36DL 5829 · flown by Republic 3h 59m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 7h 19m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:50 → ORD 08:34AA 3027 1h 24m Chicago ORD 09:58 → BWI 13:03AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 13m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:05 → IAH 09:50UA 2438 2h 26m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 9h 25m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 3h 09m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 7h 57m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 23m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON