Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1951 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1951 EWR 07:30 → CLE 09:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1611 EWR 18:35 → CLE 20:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1951 United	EWR 07:30	CLE 09:19	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1833 United Flight history →	EWR 08:30	CLE 10:08	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
YX 3701 Republic	EWR 14:36	CLE 16:15	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2172 United Flight history →	EWR 16:26	CLE 18:12	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2398 United Flight history →	EWR 19:55	CLE 21:45	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	CLE 20:24	18%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON